Eventos

The CEER Model: A Spatial CGE Model of Colombia

October 26-28, 2015 – Banco de la República, Cartagena, Colombia

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Lecturers: Prof. Eduardo A. Haddad – University of Sao Paulo (Brazil) and Weslem R. Faria (Federal University of Juiz de Fora (Brazil)

Eduardo A. Haddad is Full Professor at the Department of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil, where he directs the Regional and Urban Economics Lab (NEREUS). He also holds a position as Affiliate Research Professor at the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory – REAL – at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA. Haddad has published widely in professional journals on regional and interregional input-output analysis, computable general equilibrium modeling, and various aspects of regional economic development in developing countries; he has also contributed with chapters in international books in the fields of regional science and economic development. His research focuses on large-scale modeling of multi-regional economic systems, with special interest in modeling integration applied to transportation, climate change and spatial interaction. Professor Haddad received his B.A. in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in 1993 and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urban-Champaign in 1997. In 1998 he held a post-doctoral position at the University of Oxford. He has served as the president of the Brazilian Regional Science Association (2008-2010), and as the first president of the Regional Science Association of the Americas (2008-2010). He was the Director of Research of the Institute of Economic Research Foundation – FIPE – from 2005 to 2013. From January 2-14 too July 2015 he was on sabbatical as a visitor at the Department of Economics (International Economics Section) at Princeton University, and at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Public Policy and Planning at Rutgers University.

Weslem R. Faria is Associate Professor at the Department of Economics at the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, where he is faculty member of the Territory and Sectoral Analysis Lab (LATES). He is also associated with the Regional and Urban Economics Lab (NEREUS) at the University of Sao Paulo. He finished his Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Sao Paulo, conducting part of his research at the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA. Professor Faria has published journal articles on topics related to regional and interregional input-output analysis, computable general equilibrium modeling and spatial analysis. His main areas of interests include environment economics and natural resources, energy economics, and spatial interaction models.

Course Outline

The course aims to introduce participants to the ideas and techniques of interregional CGE modeling, and to equip them to start using the CEER model, adapting such model for their own simulations. By the end of the course, participants will have been introduced to:

• the theory underlying the CEER model
• the basic structure of the CEER model
• the representation of the CEER model in the notation used in GEMPACK
• the data requirements of the CEER model
• formulating exogenous scenarios
• computing simulations for policy analysis
• interpreting and reporting results

Program

Day 1 (October 26) – Introduction to CGE models

8:45-9:00: Course welcome and introductions

9:00-10:30: Interregional input-output models

10:30-11:00: Coffee break

11:00-12:30: Applications: the IIO model for Colombia

12:30-14:00: Lunch

14:00-15:30: Structure of a CGE model

15:30-16:00: Coffee break

16:00-18:00: Overview of the GEMPACK software

Day 2 (October 27) – The CEER Model

9:00-10:30: Theory of the CEER model

10:30-11:00: Coffee break

11:00-12:30: Theory of the CEER model

12:30-14:00: Lunch

14:00-16:00: Hands-on

16:00-16:30: Coffee break

16:30-18:00: Hands-on

Day 3 (October 28) – Applications

9:00-10:30: Hands-on

10:30-11:00: Coffee break

11:00-12:30: Hands-on and conclusion of the course

Course Material

Students should install the software GEMPACK and bring it in their computers in the first day of the course. If preferable, please download and install a temporary (three-month-free-trial) executable-image version of GEMPACK and bring it in your computer.

Students should also read Text 1, Text 2 and Text 3 before before the first meeting. Other readings are provided below.

• Text 1: The Johansen Approach – pre-reading
• Text 2: The Theoretical Structure of the MONASH-MRF Model – pre-reading
• Text 3: The B-MARIA Model – pre-reading

Assignment

Go through the CEER guide and answer the 40 questions related to the CEER model. Follow the instructions in Appendix 1 in order to install the model in your computer. You will need the following files:

• Computing Guide for the CEER Model Using Customized RunGEM – download
• The Customized RunGEM – download
• CEER folder with model files – download

Practice (Stylized Johansen Model)

Gempack documentation – pp 17-28 – download

Examples IO

Excel (check also https://guilhotojjmgen.wordpress.com/), Colombia, Lebanon, Brazil SP-RB Brazil PA-RB

Lectures

Lecture 1 – Input-output models, Lecture 2 – Introduction to CGE models, Lecture 3 – GEMPACK, Lecture 4 – The CEER model

References

Multipliers in an Island Economy: The Case of the Azores, Haddad, E. A., Silva, V., Porsse, A. A., and Dentinho, T. In:  A. Batabyal and P. Nijkamp (Eds.), The Region and Trade: New Analytical Directions, World Scientific, p. 205-226, 2015

Spatial Perspectives of Increasing Freeness of Trade in Lebanon, Haddad, E. A.. The Annals of Regional Science, v.53, n. 1, p. 23-54, 2014.

Domestic Tourism and Regional Inequality in Brazil, Haddad, E. A., Porsse, A. A., and Rabahy, W. A.. Tourism Economics, v. 19, p. 173-186, 2013.

Impact Assessment of Interregional Government Transfers: Lessons from the Brazil Experience, Haddad, E. A., Luque, C. A., Lima, G. T., Sakurai, S. N and Costa, S. M., In: J. R. Cuadrado-Roura and P. Aroca (Eds.), Regional Problems and Policies in Latin America, Advances in Spatial Science, Springer Verlag, p. 475-493, 2013

Climate Change and the Future of Regions, Azzoni, C. R. and Haddad, E. A.. In: R. Capello and T. P. Dentinho (Eds.). Networks, Space and Competitiveness: Evolving Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2012.

Regional Integration in Colombia: A Spatial CGE Application, Haddad, E. A., Barufi, A. M. B., Costa, S. M.. Scienze Regionali / Italian Journal of Regional Science, v.10, p. 3-28, 2011.

Assessing the ex ante Economic Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure Policies in Brazil, Haddad, E. A.; Perobelli, F. S.; Domingues, E. P.; Aguiar, M.. Journal of Development Effectiveness, v. 3, no.1, p. 44-61, 2011.

Major Sport Events and Regional Development: The Case of the Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympic Games, Haddad, E. A. e Haddad, P. R.. Regional Science Policy and Practice, v. 2, p. 79-95, 2010.

Regional Effects of Port Infrastructure: A Spatial CGE Application to Brazil, Haddad, E. A., Hewings, G. J. D., Perobelli, F. S. e dos Santos, R. A. C.. International Regional Science Review, v. 33, p. 239-263, 2010.

Spatial Aspects of Trade Liberalization in Colombia: A General Equilibrium Approach, Haddad, E. A., Bonet, J., Hewings, G.J.D. e Perobelli, F.S.. Papers in Regional Science, v. 88, p. 699-732, 2009.

Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Miller, R, and Blair P., 2nd Edition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Interregional Computable General Equilibrium Models, Haddad, E. A.. In: Sonis, M.; Hewings, G. J. D. (Org.). Tool Kits in Regional Science: Theory, Models and Estimation, Berlin: Springer, p. 119-154, 2009.

Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa: A Workbook, Anselin, L., Spatial Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Revised Version, March 6, 2005.

Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics, Dixon, P.B.,Parmenter, B.R., Powell, A. A. and Wilcoxen, P. J., Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1992.

Notes and Problems in Microeconomic Theory , Dixon, P.B.,Bowles,  S. and Kendrick, D., Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1980.